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Detailed analysis of China's textile industry

Detailed analysis of China's textile industry

 
Recently, the price of cotton in China has risen first and then fell. The overall price has risen, and the international cotton price has fluctuated and fallen; China's cotton yarn prices have stopped rising and stabilized, while international cotton yarn prices have steadily declined; polyester staple fiber prices have continued to fall.
 
1. The price of cotton in China rose first and then fell, and the overall price rose slightly
 
This week, ginners are actively rushing to harvest seed cotton. After the opening scale prices in various places continue to rise, the market's wait-and-see sentiment has increased. Chinese cotton prices first rose and then fell, and the overall rise. On September 21-25, 2020, the main contract settlement price of Zhengzhou cotton futures was 12,834 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous week; the national cotton price B index average price of 12743, representing the market price of standard-grade lint cotton in the mainland Yuan/ton, an increase of 79 Yuan/ton, or 0.6%, from the previous week; the average transaction price of reserve cotton rounds was 12,330 Yuan/ton, an increase of 208 Yuan/ton, or 1.72%, from the previous week.
 
2. International cotton prices fluctuate and fall
 
This week, the rebound of the epidemic in Europe and the United States has triggered concerns about the re-implementation of the blockade. U.S. stocks plummeted, the US dollar index rose, and international cotton prices fell. On September 21-25, 2020, the main contract settlement price of New York cotton futures was 65.37 cents/lb, down 0.82 cents/lb from the previous week, or 1.2%; the international cotton index representing the average CIF price of imported cotton in China’s main ports (M) The average price was 71.4 US cents/lb, down 0.56 US cents/lb from the previous week, or 0.8%, equivalent to RMB 12,386/ton (calculated at a tariff of 1%, including port goods and freight), which was higher than that of Chinese cotton. The price is 357 yuan/ton lower, and the price difference between inside and outside cotton is 174 yuan/ton smaller than the previous week.
 
3. The price of cotton yarn in China has stopped rising and stabilized, and the price of outer yarn has stabilized and declined
 
textile fabric clothing
 
This week, although the number of terminal textile service orders has rebounded, the performance of cotton yarn and polyester cotton yarn with C32S and above counts is not satisfactory. The price of mainstream cotton yarn has stopped rising and stabilized, and spinning enterprises have accelerated destocking; as international cotton prices have fallen, market demand The quotations of outer yarns stopped rising and falling; the current average price of conventional outer yarns was higher than domestic yarns at 623 yuan/ton; the downstream grey cloth market was dominated by small batches of goods, and the price of pure cotton cloth remained stable; the sales of polyester staple fibers decreased before the holiday , The quotation is slightly lowered.
 
4. Outlook
 
The European and American epidemics rebounded, and the upward momentum of international cotton prices was hindered. The latest data shows that the United Kingdom announced the implementation of new epidemic prevention measures for about six months. The number of deaths from the new crown in the United States exceeded 200,000. The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time last week remained high, highlighting the highly uncertain prospects for economic recovery. In the international cotton market, the United States’ new cotton harvest progress was 11%, 1% faster than the previous year, and the proportion of good seedlings was stable. After October, the harvest of new cotton in northern India will enter a climax. Cotton India estimates that the output of Indian cotton in 2020/21 will be 6.12 million tons, an increase of 2.9% from the previous year. As the northern hemisphere cotton is gradually picked, seasonal supply pressure will increase. Affected by the rebound of the epidemic in Europe, some countries may implement control measures, and clothing demand will fall again. Last week, the spot transaction of lint cotton has obvious signs of cooling down, and the trend of international cotton prices tends to be cautious in the short term. At the same time, China-US relations and the special window of the hurricane high incidence period, the fluctuation range of cotton prices may increase.
 
The enthusiasm for new cotton purchases is high, and China's cotton prices are firm. At the end of the quarter, funding was tight, and Shibor short-term interest rate fluctuations rose compared to the previous week. The central bank increased its open market investment and achieved a net investment of 480 billion yuan within this week, striving to protect market liquidity, and liquidity at the end of the quarter was tight. It is expected to be alleviated. In the near future, Premier Li Keqiang requested to continue to maintain financial support for the real economy. In the Chinese cotton market, China's new cotton picking and acquisition work is gradually starting. According to the estimated production of 5.868 million tons of Chinese cotton, the country's new cotton picking progress was 5.3% as of September 25, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 percentage points. The harvest of seed cotton and lint cotton was 313,000 Tons, a year-on-year decrease of 34,000 tons. The purchase price of some cotton enterprises was 5.45-5.6 yuan/kg, and the converted lint processing cost reached about 13000 yuan/ton, which was higher than the spot price of about 12700-12800 yuan/ton, and the price was inverted. At present, the purchase price of seed cotton is still rising, and some purchase prices have reached 6 yuan/kg, and the market’s wait-and-see sentiment has begun to increase.

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